Used Transformation pathways

These paths are the socalled "Shared Socioeconomic pathways" based on Mitter et al., 2020; O'Neill et al., 2017, 2014; Daigneault und Favero, 2021.

Social and environmental awareness increases steadily and significantly while the public and private actors cooperate more efficiently. The environmental and primary sector-related policies are implemented, including; forest and land use regulation, removal of production driving subsidies, taxation of environmental damage and increased funding for regulation and cultural services. Forestry and other resources are depleted to a lesser extent. Technological development is focused on low emission, resource efficiency, increased primary sector productivity with more ecological practices, more efficiently processed biomass, the rapid development of novel products and efficient recycling of wood and other biomass. Demand pattern changes may include; reduced virgin wood demand, paper, paperboard, and meat, and increased demand for certified and legally procured wood, bio-based materials and plant-based foods. Increasingly preferred transparent and short-value chains combined with internalized transport cost reduce trade.

Environmental awareness decreases while national concerns regarding self-sufficiency, competitiveness, and security create a more compartmentalized world with less cooperation between national and multinational governmental bodies and more severe trade restrictions. Environmental policies and (forest use) regulations are lacking and spatially heterogeneous, while primary sector-related policies attempt to maintain national production capacities and production standards kept low. Old-growth deforestation increases relative to historical trends, and energy intensity of consumption increases while demand for and public payment to environmental services decreases. Technological development and diffusion slow down due to weaker cooperation between public and private actors and lower investments. This results in minimal biomaterials development progress, a productivity focus instead of a greenhouse gas emission mitigation focus, and low primary sector productivity growth focused on local knowledge management. The self-sufficiency concern results in changing demand for food (highly processed, traditional and limited in range), feed and agro-fuels, and energy intensity consumption, ensuring stable wooden-biomass demand for energy production for households and industry. International market integration falls while neo-colonialism and land grabbing become increasingly important, and national market concentration decreases.

Inequalities increase due to highly unequal human capital investments, increasing social disparities between and within rural and urban areas, resulting in social segregation. European institutions and supply chains are mostly dominated and shaped by a business-oriented wealthy upper class which is reflected in the environmental and primary sector regulation. Forest use is heavily regulated, environmental standards generally decrease except for scenic hotspot regions and agricultural policies are increasingly focused on supporting economic growth and technological development. Forest plantation yields and management improve while technological development is focused on energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies. Resources are increasingly overused, and energy consumption follows historical trends, while a lower-intensity use transition is more rapid in developed countries. The demand for woody biomass-based energy is steady globally, while demand for European agro-food products is increasingly diverse, while domestic demand for feed and non-food commodities decreases. The demand for European agro-food products ranges from local and exotic artisanal products with plant based-meat substitutes (high-income groups) to mass-produced and simple food at low cost (low-income groups).

The society believes strongly in competitive markets, technological innovation, materialism, fossil fuel-based energy and participatory societies as a path to sustainable development with rapid technological and human capital development. Adherence to sustainable agriculture and forestry management practices is spatially heterogeneous, and environmental standards are substantially lower than the status quo. Meanwhile, subsidies for agricultural and food systems are reduced to fit with liberalized and integrated market ideals. A natural resource is overexploited due to a higher resource and energy consumption than the historical trend. Ecosystems service valuations are only local in nature (typically in or near urban areas), and forest areas are converted to pastures to meet food demand despite higher crop yields and due to the increased global demand for animal products. The range of foodstuffs expected to be demanded varies greatly. It might differ based on geography, with expected European food demand being characterized by high quality and novelty (for example, exotic superfoods, cultured meats and insects). Forest plantation yields and management increase quickly due to the rising demand for investment in timber-growing technology. At the same time, the agricultural and food systems’ economic growth is boosted by increasing investment in technological know-how and employee training. Demand for bio-based industrial raw materials and innovative products increases, woody biomass-based electricity and transport fuel demand increase due to high per capita energy consumption, and demand remains high for fossil fuels. Forestry and agricultural markets are globalized, enabling specialization and investments into new technologies and products.